|
Item 9.3 - Attachment 2 |
Economic Modelling of Supercross
2009 |
ATTACHMENT 2
The Economic Impact of Supercross 2009 on
the
Analysis prepared by
Mike Thomas, Manager, Economic Development
Monday, June 1,
2009
Overview
Based on the following
scenario, an assessment was undertaken on the economic impact of Supercross 2009 on
the Parramatta Economy.
|
Visitors |
Domestic Day |
Domestic Overnight |
International |
|
Number of Visitors |
17,230 |
1270 |
0 |
|
Number of Nights |
NA |
1 |
0 |
|
Tourism Research |
$101 |
$205 |
q |
|
Tourism Research |
$1,740,230 |
$260,350 |
0 |
|
*Parramatta City Council Estimated
Expenditure per Visitor ($) for Supercross based on exit surveys with
visitors for Riverbeats 2006, 2007 and 2008 |
$65 |
$133.25 |
0 |
|
*Parramatta City Council Estimated Total
Expenditure per Visitor ($) for Supercross based on exit surveys with
visitors for Riverbeats in 2006, 2007 and 2008 |
$1,119,950 |
$169,227 |
0 |
* Survey data from PCC conservatively estimates that expenditure
on tourism / events in
This assessment was
modeled utilizing a software program called REMPLAN, specifically
developed for, and purchased by Parramatta City Council from Compelling
Economics.
The software incorporates a region-specific economic
impact modeling feature that was first developed at La Trobe University, with
continued development from December 2006 by Compelling Economics Pty Ltd. This
feature generates estimates of indirect or flow-on impacts from a direct change
to an economy.
All figures, data and
commentary presented in this software are based on data sourced from the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Tourism Research Australia (TRA).
Using ABS and TRA datasets
and an input / output methodology, industrial economic data estimates for
defined geographic regions are generated.
Model Output
Under the above scenario Gross Region Product was estimated to have increase
by $844,467 dollars (0.01 %) to $12,425,281,898 dollars. Contributing to this is a direct increase in output of $1,103,895 dollars,
1160 additional jobs were either supported or created for the duration of the event (or 3 additional jobs over a 12 month period), $179,045 dollars
more in wages and salaries and a boost in value-added of $491,654 dollars.
From this direct expansion
in the economy, flow-on industrial effects in terms of local purchases of goods and services were anticipated, and it is estimated that
these indirect impacts would result in a further increase to output valued at $546,844 dollars, 1 more jobs were either supported or created (over a 12 month period), $113,028 dollars more paid in wages and salaries,
and a gain of $216,601 dollars in
terms of value-added.
The increase in direct and
indirect output and the corresponding support or creation of jobs in the economy,
were expected to result in an
increase in the wages and salaries paid to employees. A proportion of these
wages and salaries are typically spent on consumption and a proportion of this
expenditure is captured in the local economy. The consumption effects under the
scenario were expected to further boost output by $297,834 dollars, and support or create employment by 2 jobs (over a 12 month period), wages and salaries
by $83,683
dollars, and value-added by $136,212 dollars.
Under this scenario, total
output is expected to rise by $1,948,573 dollars. Corresponding to this were
anticipated increases in the
support or creation of employment
of 6 jobs (over a 12 month
period), $375,755 dollars wages
and salaries, and $844,467 dollars in
terms of value-added.
These
industrial effects represent the following Type 1 (Industrial) economic
multipliers:
|
Impact |
Type 1 Multipliers |
|
Output |
1.495 |
|
Long Term Employment |
1.333 |
|
Wages and Salaries |
1.631 |
|
Value-added |
1.441 |
These changes to economic activity represent the
following Type 2 (consumption) economic multipliers:
|
Impact |
Type
2 Multipliers |
|
Output |
1.765 |
|
Long
Term Employment |
2.000 |
|
Wages
and Salaries |
2.099 |
|
Value-added |
1.718 |
More about the Tourism/
Visitor Analysis Module and the Tourism/Visitor Sector
Where
is the tourism/Visitor sector?
The answer is that tourism
is an amalgam of activities across various industry sectors such as retail,
accommodation, cafes & restaurants, cultural & recreational services.
In order to capture the
value of tourism, surveying may be conducted to gather
direct expenditure data from people attending specific festivals or events.
Once this survey data is collated and coded it can be applied to REMPLAN to
model the direct and flow-on economic implications for the region from hosting
such activities.
Where representative
samples of data are captured in relation to specific events the combination of
market research and economic analysis is a powerful basis upon which to make
strategic decisions about growing tourism activities in the region. A
shortcoming of such approaches is that they can be expensive in terms of time
and resources. In some circumstances secondary data may represent a cost
effective alternative while still providing the insights required. In the above
table and graphs secondary datasets have been applied to estimate the
contribution of tourists to the area’s economy.
What is the Tourism Analysis Module?
The Tourism Analysis
Module (TAM) facilitates the application of tourist expenditure survey data to
REMPLAN. REMPLAN can then be used to model the flow-on impacts for a local
economy of tourism activity in terms of output, employment, wages and salaries
and value-added.
Where survey data is
unavailable, TAM provides an alternative approach to estimating expenditure by
tourists by incorporating region-specific tourist expenditure data from Tourism
Research
The Australian National
Accounts provides estimates of output by industry sector, and the Tourism
Satellite Account (TSA), also from the Australian Bureau of Statistics,
provides estimates of the value of industry sectors’ contributions to total
tourism product output. Combined, it possible to estimate the proportion of
output for each industry sector that is generated to service demand created by
tourists at the national level.
In the TSA, tourism is
defined as:
"Comprising the activities of persons travelling
to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one
consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not related to the
exercise of an activity remunerated from within the place visited."
Under this definition of
tourism, the expenditure of domestic, international, business and government
travelers are included.
In the Australian economy
it is estimated that the following percentages relate to industry sectors’
output that is generated to service demand from tourists.
|
Industry
Sector |
% of
Tourism Activity |
|
Accommodation,
cafes & restaurants |
29.10
% |
|
Transport
& storage |
17.00
% |
|
Retail
trade |
11.10
% |
|
Cultural
& recreational services |
7.90
% |
|
Education |
4.50
% |
|
Wholesale
trade |
2.50
% |
|
Manufacturing |
2.30
% |
|
Communication
services |
1.90
% |
|
Health
& community services |
1.50
% |
|
Agriculture
Forestry Fishing |
1.30
% |
|
Property
& business services |
1.10
% |
|
Personal
& other services |
0.60
% |
|
Government
administration & defence |
0.30
% |
|
Mining |
0.10
% |
|
Construction |
0.00
% |
|
Electricity,
gas & water supply |
0.00
% |
|
Finance
& insurance |
0.00
% |
Source: ABS Tourism Satellite
Account
These
percentages have been applied to the economic profile of the
Industry Output
attributable to Tourism
This report shows the
gross revenue generated by businesses and organisations in
The total value of tourism
related output for
All industry sectors in
|
Sector |
Tourism Output $M |
% |
|
Manufacturing |
$212.322 |
25.6 % |
|
Transport &
storage |
$166.984 |
20.1 % |
|
Accommodation, cafes
& restaurants |
$137.940 |
16.6 % |
|
Retail trade |
$125.094 |
15.1 % |
|
Wholesale trade |
$45.865 |
5.5 % |
|
Property &
business services |
$34.614 |
4.2 % |
|
Cultural &
recreational services |
$32.289 |
3.9 % |
|
Health &
community services |
$25.818 |
3.1 % |
|
Education |
$24.047 |
2.9 % |
|
Communication
services |
$17.023 |
2.1 % |
|
Government
administration & defence |
$3.985 |
0.5 % |
|
Personal & other
services |
$3.632 |
0.4 % |
|
Agriculture Forestry
Fishing |
$0.192 |
0.0 % |
|
Mining |
$0.044 |
0.0 % |
|
Finance &
insurance |
$0.000 |
0.0 % |
|
Construction |
$0.000 |
0.0 % |
|
Electricity, gas
& water supply |
$0.000 |
0.0 % |
|
Total |
$829.849 |
|
Industry Employment
attributable to Tourism
This report shows the
number of jobs in each industry
sector in
The total tourism related
employment estimate for
All industry sectors in
|
Sector |
Tourism Employment |
% |
|
Retail trade |
1,071 |
30.9 % |
|
Accommodation, cafes
& restaurants |
828 |
23.8 % |
|
Transport &
storage |
459 |
13.2 % |
|
Manufacturing |
246 |
7.1 % |
|
Health &
community services |
225 |
6.5 % |
|
Education |
200 |
5.8 % |
|
Wholesale trade |
126 |
3.6 % |
|
Cultural &
recreational services |
121 |
3.5 % |
|
Property &
business services |
106 |
3.1 % |
|
Communication
services |
40 |
1.1 % |
|
Personal & other
services |
28 |
0.8 % |
|
Government
administration & defence |
20 |
0.6 % |
|
Agriculture Forestry
Fishing |
1 |
0.0 % |
|
Mining |
0 |
0.0 % |
|
Finance &
insurance |
0 |
0.0 % |
|
Construction |
0 |
0.0 % |
|
Electricity, gas
& water supply |
0 |
0.0 % |
|
Total |
3,471 |
|
Distribution of Tourism
Dollar
For each dollar spent by a tourist in
|
Industry Sector |
Portion of $1 spent |
|
Transport &
storage |
$0.25 |
|
Accommodation, cafes
& restaurants |
$0.21 |
|
Retail trade |
$0.18 |
|
Manufacturing |
$0.15 |
|
Property &
business services |
$0.05 |
|
Cultural &
recreational services |
$0.04 |
|
Wholesale trade |
$0.04 |
|
Education |
$0.03 |
|
Health &
community services |
$0.01 |
|
Communication
services |
$0.01 |
|
Agriculture Forestry
Fishing |
$0.01 |
|
Government
administration & defence |
$0.00 |
|
Personal & other
services |
$0.00 |
|
Mining |
$0.00 |
|
Electricity, gas
& water supply |
$0.00 |
|
Construction |
$0.00 |
|
Finance &
insurance |
$0.00 |
|
Total |
$1.00 |
The data presented in the above table and graph is sourced from the Australian
Bureau of Statistics Tourism Satellite Account and represents the estimated
typical distribution of a dollar spent by a tourist in
Visitor
Average Expenditure Profile Report
Tourism Research
The
profile data derived from the IVS AND NVS is based on a sample, rather than a
census of tourism visitors in